Highlights from Lawrence Yun’s #NAREE17 Housing Forecast Presentation

The economic and housing forecast panel at the annual National Association of Real Estate Editors (NAREE) spring conference is always one of the most interesting and engaging sessions during the week.

This year’s session in Denver did not disappoint.

“A majority of consumers are still indicating that now is a good time to buy a home,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, who kicked off this morning’s panel. “Unfortunately, housing supply is too low and prices keep going higher. These affordability challenges will likely remain into next year as long as inventory fails to pick up.”

Yun’s presentation, “Affordability Challenges to Homeownership, was made in front of a packed house of real estate reporters and industry professionals. Here are the highlights:

Yun’s key remarks  #NAREE17:

  • The equity of homeowners has doubled since 2009.
  • Job creation in many areas is far outpacing housing starts.
  • Mortgage rates have fallen back to around 4 percent. This has somewhat helped preserve affordability this spring.
  • Home sales are running at a decade high and would be higher if there were more supply.
  • Homeowners’ credit profiles are healthy – minimal defaults.
  • There’s a mismatch in many areas between what’s for sale and what households can afford.
  • Affordability challenges will remain because of low housing supply.
  • Existing-home sales are expected to be around 5.60 million this year (up roughly 3 percent from 2016); home prices up 5.0 percent.

Message me (adesanctis@realtors.org) for Yun’s presentation slides.